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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP