Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 54

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(9:33) 5-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to BUF 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.26 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model