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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 18

New York Jets 13 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 2-Z.Wilson up the middle to BUF 16 for 2 yards (90-S.Lawson; 43-T.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.22 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model