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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 13 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:42) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NYJ 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.83 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP