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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 61

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 5-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to BUF 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty ran ob at BUF 15 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model