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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.63 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model