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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP