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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 35 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

What Actually Happened

(:11) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model