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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model