Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(:15) 13-B.Kern punts 34 yards to SF 40, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-27-Z.McPhearson, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model