4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-6-D.Gray. PENALTY on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at PHI 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model