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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 13-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP