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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 19-D.Samuel left end to SF 31 for -7 yards (32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at SF 31.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.54 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model