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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model