Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(11:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.97 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model