Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 98

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(11:27) 13-B.Kern punts 53 yards to SF 45, Center-45-R.Lovato. 3-R.McCloud to PHI 46 for 9 yards (45-R.Lovato; 32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -3.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.69 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 98, worth -6.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model