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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 82

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PHI 37, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.21 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 40, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP