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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 8 at the 40
New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7
What Actually Happened
(5:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at PHI 48 for -8 yards (7-H.Reddick).
The Three Options
GO
-0.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.65 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP
KICK
-0.40 EP
- 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
- 45% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
