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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 58

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to PHI 18, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model