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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 70

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to PHI 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model