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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PHI 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.66 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model