Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 12 – San Francisco 49ers 19

(2:11) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SF 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.11 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model