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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Dallas Cowboys 12

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.34 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model