4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 9 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 19-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model