Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(10:22) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to SF 5, Center-45-M.Overton. 3-R.McCloud to SF 18 for 13 yards (1-K.Joseph; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model