Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 9 – San Francisco 49ers 9

(6:05) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to SF 9, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP

KICK -1.35 EP

31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
69% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model