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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 46

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model