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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 7

Dallas Cowboys 6 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 19-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model