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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP