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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 31 – Buffalo Bills 34

What Actually Happened

(2:29) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Gesicki (24-K.Elam). BUF-24-K.Elam was injured during the play. K.Elam walks off.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -0.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model