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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 24 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines MUFFS catch, recovered by BUF-53-T.Dodson at BUF 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model