Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 20 – Miami Dolphins 24

(8:52) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIA 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model