Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 17 – Buffalo Bills 20

(14:17) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to BUF 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines to BUF 30 for 6 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model