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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.38 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model