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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 6 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model