Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 6

(1:48) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-C.Wilson to BUF 27 for 50 yards (8-S.Martin, 85-Q.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.86 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model