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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 22

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.39 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model