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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model