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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-94-C.Rumph.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP
KICK -1.87 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP