Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

(3:21) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model