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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 23. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 39 for 16 yards (17-E.Engram).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model