4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 15-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model