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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 11-M.Jones to LAC 14 for 12 yards (32-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.99 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model