Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(2:00) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to JAX 49, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-Te.Campbell to LAC 47 for 4 yards (94-C.Rumph).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.06 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model