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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to LAC 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 23-B.Callahan.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.92 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP