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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 5-J.Camarda punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.09 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model