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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 6-J.Jones to DAL 8 for 5 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model