Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 76

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(11:32) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to TB 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 41 for 10 yards (89-P.Hendershot).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.70 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model