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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to TB 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-1-K.Joseph.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP