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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 1
Dallas Cowboys 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(6:18) 4-D.Prescott left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.09 EP
KICK
+1.58 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
